It has been a chilly and snowy start to December, but Environment Canada says northwestern Ontario will likely see higher-than-normal temperatures this winter.
Research Scientist Bill Merryfield says they will not be as warm as last winter.
“Last winter, we had a strong El Nino, really historically strong El Nino, which contributed to the very warm winter temperatures across most of Canada,” says Merryfield.
“This year we don’t have that El Nino. In fact, we have a little bit of opposite influence from a weak La Nina and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which may or may not strongly reach northwestern Ontario. The main influence there is probably the very warm temperatures around Hudson Bay and in the North Atlantic combined with the long-term trend for the warming of Canada’s winter climate.”
It is a similar expectation for snowfall amounts.
Environment Canada says above-normal snowfall is slightly to moderately favoured for the region at least in December.
Merryfield says they do not have a clear signal that will continue for the rest of the winter.
“The long-term warming trend, certainly, is pushing the snow seasons to be shorter on average, and that tendency will certainly continue with the other influences such as the El Nino/La Nina cycle sort of factoring.”
A weak La Nina is expected to have an influence this winter, especially in western Canada.
